Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas State vs. UL Monroe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cff8787845e126f98b747583230d8bf3e80156626e35a9d08ed1d36debdd015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, UL Monroe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Texas State | 73c | 5,377$3,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.25 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed UL Monroe | 27c | 1,086$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.39 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked UL Monroe | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed UL Monroe | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Texas State | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…eee6backed UL Monroe | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…dd52backed UL Monroe | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…4d33backed Texas State | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…850ebacked UL Monroe | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fa…ba0abacked Texas State | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…7a65backed UL Monroe | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…ab9abacked UL Monroe | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…becfbacked Texas State | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…d49cbacked Texas State | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…8cd3backed Texas State | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…30e8backed Texas State | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…8d6bbacked UL Monroe | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…e4f9backed Texas State | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…314abacked Texas State | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…c856backed Texas State | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…1496backed UL Monroe | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…148ebacked UL Monroe | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…7400backed Texas State | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…0e89backed UL Monroe | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…c7babacked Texas State | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…2971backed Texas State | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa814…bb34backed Texas State | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…10e1backed Texas State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…e339backed Texas State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…b046backed Texas State | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…515ebacked Texas State | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…1caebacked Texas State | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…4b6fbacked Texas State | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.