Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State vs. Indiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd797cd1b6c84254a44dbc00859439a204765515a17e424c1493b42024cb4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Penn State, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Penn State | 22c | 624$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…1034backed Indiana | 70c | 194$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…a03bbacked Penn State | 31c | 145$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…c8e2backed Penn State | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…3a12backed Indiana | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c1…170fbacked Indiana | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…428bbacked Indiana | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…14b7backed Indiana | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a1…0dcdbacked Penn State | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ff92backed Penn State | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…d09abacked Penn State | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…6113backed Indiana | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…a0b1backed Indiana | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…4fd7backed Indiana | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…d850backed Indiana | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…1e40backed Indiana | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…18fbbacked Indiana | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…af4ebacked Indiana | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c477backed Indiana | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d31…9953backed Indiana | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…7750backed Indiana | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…3ccfbacked Indiana | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…758bbacked Indiana | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…3cbabacked Indiana | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…6e14backed Indiana | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aed…9282backed Indiana | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…46b7backed Indiana | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…2fe7backed Indiana | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…9428backed Indiana | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…85e2backed Indiana | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…51dcbacked Indiana | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.