Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df3d444afe21f4bb713f4a3c458453f8ac0e42ff793ef2d21fc93752069cafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McNeese Stateof McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Stephen F. Austin | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb74…fe75backed Stephen F. Austin | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…55b8backed Stephen F. Austin | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…094ebacked Stephen F. Austin | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e7…9989backed Stephen F. Austin | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe441…90d2backed Stephen F. Austin | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…edbfbacked Stephen F. Austin | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…63debacked McNeese State | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b8…6d32backed McNeese State | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…fa19backed McNeese State | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…1e18backed McNeese State | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0736…327fbacked McNeese State | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…3ec6backed McNeese State | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…bcd4backed McNeese State | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef7…e039backed McNeese State | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.