TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Kraken

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Kraken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c57…5b16backed Kraken45c2,118$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.191,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd2…d60fbacked Lightning78c1,464$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.13785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick67cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Lightning59c1,417$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.976657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kraken47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6585148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Kraken20c650.48$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9831334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28266951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fd…7ae6backed Lightning78c512$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.85750.9%29 W · 28 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Lightning56c506.7$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9522246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e1…69a4backed Kraken31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked Lightning75c452.4$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.11580%12 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Kraken21c380$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…eb90backed Kraken46c362.72$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ec…16ccbacked Lightning55c362.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning55c306.92$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Lightning61c277.58$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5813562.2%84 W · 51 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…61a1backed Lightning55c250.91$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.917248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Kraken45c199.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.968537.6%32 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Kraken46c187.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6919150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c91…0505backed Lightning56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.577650%38 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lightning55c159.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9972847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Lightning52c141.01$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6925340.7%103 W · 150 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Kraken25c112$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b22…e36dbacked Lightning56c103.7$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.712450%12 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Lightning55c99.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9950049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Kraken47c99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5381846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Kraken24c91.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Kraken46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8fbcbacked Lightning55c85.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Kraken45c85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.255435.2%19 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning53c79.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3275155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d1…c8edbacked Kraken47c69.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9b…6f62backed Kraken45c66.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2505…a4f7backed Lightning55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275046%23 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc224…cd43backed Lightning55c54.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7119057.9%110 W · 80 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Kraken45c50.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.954349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc70…ad54backed Lightning55c50.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551580%12 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+51%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf881…abafbacked Kraken45c50.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4858…859dbacked Lightning53c45.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.27475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4da…81e9backed Kraken47c45.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0d…cf42backed Lightning53c45.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.18850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…de7bbacked Kraken45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204526.7%12 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f26…df69backed Kraken45c43.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb915…4ff4backed Lightning53c42.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2008…e143backed Kraken47c42.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489f…0ac2backed Lightning53c42.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b4…43f7backed Kraken47c42.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2c…4443backed Lightning55c42.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…0f0ebacked Kraken45c42.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6844…6d11backed Kraken45c42.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Lightning76c41.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107444.6%33 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd18…5183backed Kraken47c41.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78b3…dd9fbacked Kraken46c40.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefad…ce1bbacked Lightning54c40.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+63%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa554…15c5backed Kraken45c40.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6144…2fffbacked Lightning56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.64452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x343c…d9e9backed Kraken46c39.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91b…bfacbacked Kraken45c39.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2090…91ccbacked Kraken45c38.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab6…d47cbacked Lightning53c37.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56e7…045dbacked Lightning53c36.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Lightning54c36.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6329847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5965…3628backed Lightning56c35.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.895354.7%29 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Lightning56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ba…3952backed Lightning55c35.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98c5…3702backed Lightning53c35.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…8c71backed Kraken47c35.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1de0…ea33backed Lightning53c35.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcfb…a1d0backed Kraken47c35.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefed…1fffbacked Kraken45c35.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae31…d0e4backed Lightning55c35.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54da…c582backed Lightning53c35.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.67650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc8…270ebacked Lightning55c35.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8e…1488backed Kraken45c35.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9d…33cbbacked Lightning57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Kraken45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7384051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf98…37bcbacked Lightning54c34.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7d3…127cbacked Kraken45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6115…4d6bbacked Lightning55c33.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0568…1730backed Kraken45c33.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5b…26b0backed Kraken44c32.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…330fbacked Lightning55c32.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8000…dffdbacked Lightning55c32.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…d063backed Kraken46c32.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6777…246ebacked Lightning53c31.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa855…9d82backed Kraken47c31.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffb…c4d5backed Lightning54c30.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Lightning55c30.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8535545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…5fe0backed Lightning55c30.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…4abdbacked Kraken45c30.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8265…f253backed Lightning54c30.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba09…9114backed Kraken45c29.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1a…e331backed Lightning55c29.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b45…3478backed Lightning55c29.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964a…8ddabacked Lightning53c29.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd431…cf90backed Lightning55c28.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5c8…fa2abacked Lightning55c28.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3696…6befbacked Kraken47c28.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce7…a1d1backed Lightning55c28.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.