College Football · resolved market
Will Indiana beat Michigan State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f0f20d3db346da8599fc316993e23312c34c51819207b4c019b6b1ff0ac2ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Indiana, MSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Indiana | 57c | 5,091$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.11 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed MSU | 35c | 3,326$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.59 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed MSU | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked MSU | 26c | 783.54$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.72 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…9135backed Indiana | 74c | 688.95$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked MSU | 10c | 233.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbd…5d02backed Indiana | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Indiana | 67c | 118.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed MSU | 20c | 111.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked MSU | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ee…7870backed MSU | 25c | 81.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Indiana | 80c | 58.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…da6dbacked Indiana | 80c | 52.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Indiana | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…ebd2backed Indiana | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…16ebbacked Indiana | 66c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Indiana | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.