Europa Conference League · resolved market
Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f22ce2d4de82c1968aae5250c7ba725a007dabba77daee5051c268cf68e8805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 4,578$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.26 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 3,944$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.18 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 47c | 1,671$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.46 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 72c | 1,639$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.54 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 935.86$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.87 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 66c | 548$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.68 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +10.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 55c | 434.51$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 32c | 281.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.21 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 66c | 261.56$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 38c | 181.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 38c | 172.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 103$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 55.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 52.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5this page
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Derry City FC vs. HNK Rijeka: Team to AdvanceHNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.