MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f3a87f5e7f275d5b625dafa4645f6e22bfdd4326c81c8f84cadbfd6df020b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 164$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…36b1backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 82.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +86%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.