MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90c30cdcd443114513bf43c7de8341929dde97b53da38068c8d7725020756e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Houston Astros | 53c | 673.74$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.24 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…ef02backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…247dbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 194$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 53c | 186$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 174$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Houston Astros | 53c | 136.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 109.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 103.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 75.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 44.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Houston Astros | 55c | 31.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.