World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91b4e9393af5fea708ced32660ba8b25d7a4bd520aa92565662a771b4ce212bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 15c | 631.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 259.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 256.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 212.84$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 147.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 36c | 91.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 81.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 77.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 75.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 41c | 70.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 50.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 44.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 40c | 44.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 54c | 42.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 36.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 35.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 49c | 28.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 59c | 26.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 40c | 26.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 68c | 26.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 48c | 26.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 57c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 68c | 22.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…9476backed No | 69c | 21.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 16.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.