Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924d5707bd0f0d82667dbcc9180f64e0a36868de479d63c7aa046019e4575952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x630f…34cebacked No | 8c | 812.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 20c | 422.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…d815backed No | 20c | 387.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…43dbbacked Yes | 80c | 387.34$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Yes | 67c | 231.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…40e1backed No | 33c | 231.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 28c | 149$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 51.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 60c | 46.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccf…f675backed No | 45c | 36.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…edeebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of March?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $124 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $134 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $138 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $142 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $146 end of March?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $148 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.