TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mariaof Maria, Valentova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa77…15a5backed Valentova52c3,134$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.5434857.2%199 W · 149 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Maria48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5209,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Maria48c561$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7227753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Maria48c502$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.042,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Maria47c488.5$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9849632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Maria48c480.05$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.631,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Maria50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002576%19 W · 6 L+6.6wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Maria48c187.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed Maria48c103.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0711955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Valentova50c82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Valentova50c82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Maria48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.548355.1%266 W · 217 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Valentova50c49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Valentova54c46.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…a5b0backed Maria40c25.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Valentova60c20.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.