Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ad728413da5dd0562af598b0b99ee4ad0f0fad2654518c6689be5acc06e77a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 18,708$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,363$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,437$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 1c | 3,464$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,506$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,646$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.31 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,261$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 5c | 950.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 11c | 918.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 11c | 633.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 620.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 3c | 529.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 456$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 17c | 441.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 4c | 401.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 18c | 328.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 12c | 229$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…35d7backed Yes | 6c | 191.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 12c | 181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 154.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 16c | 137.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 80c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 15c | 67.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.