Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936a07ab37448c7ef27a7a87b653dc12225a03f5ee197692552142c219fba50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,056 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 304.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 285.87$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 215.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nemiga Gaming | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 157.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 134.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 116.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 95.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 50.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 43.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 40.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…5ea8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5016backed Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Bthis page
- Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5) Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.