Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93d3c090204e7953043878b4ca25a9ca89de680f02614901e01c04bf18a73e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Vukic, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Vukic | 19c | 1,999$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.81 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Michelsen | 64c | 843.14$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.53 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Michelsen | 66c | 764.14$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Vukic | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Vukic | 39c | 400.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vukic | 33c | 380.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Vukic | 34c | 368$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Michelsen | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Michelsen | 61c | 187.45$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Michelsen | 73c | 166.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Michelsen | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Michelsen | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Michelsen | 68c | 138.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vukic | 37c | 128.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 62c | 127.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Vukic | 29c | 103.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Vukic | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Michelsen | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…7415backed Vukic | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Michelsen | 66c | 72.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Vukic | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Vukic | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Michelsen | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Vukic | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Vukic | 36c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Michelsen | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.