Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Yi Zhou vs Francesco Maestrelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94851db66b11c0fbb68e8d34b2a9611a3b13c22be87765b9d9f0290d156f1ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhouof Zhou, Maestrelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Zhou | 60c | 504.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Maestrelli | 40c | 356.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.78 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Zhou | 60c | 288.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…f5b5backed Zhou | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Maestrelli | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Maestrelli | 40c | 140.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maestrelli | 41c | 123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Maestrelli | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maestrelli | 40c | 90.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Zhou | 58c | 83.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Maestrelli | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Maestrelli | 41c | 57.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Maestrelli | 25c | 44.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Maestrelli | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maestrelli | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Maestrelli | 32c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Zhou | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.