Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Portland State Vikings (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ff8240c3647429c784facc1a3950e9e4c6d14bc9dbc38f4e7effa1f427a1c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacksof Portland State Vikings, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Portland State Vikings | 52c | 6,004$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,121.43 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 1,849$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.54 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 1,550$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 909$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.68 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 367.01$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 227$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Portland State Vikings | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Portland State Vikings | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portland State Vikings (-11.5)this page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Portland State VikingsPortland State Vikings won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Portland State Vikings: O/U 141.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.