Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $190 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9506e9c1d4dfa242b01e7e788570f1f796efccc3764f0541b61acfe4ad19e145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $620,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $612,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1866…f0fbbacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 56c | 12,709$7,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,061.63 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 58c | 7,967$4,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.64 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 37c | 5,510$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.52 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 35c | 4,010$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.37 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 17c | 2,604$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.63 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 13c | 2,015$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.7 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 26c | 1,591$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.31 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,178$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 47c | 1,057$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.01 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…851cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 22c | 800$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 14c | 580$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 53c | 266.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 59c | 136.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…1076backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed No | 27c | 84.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $190 September 22-28?this page
- Will Solana dip to $160 September 22-28?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 September 22-28?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 September 22-28?No won
- Will Solana dip to $200 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $210 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 September 22-28?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 September 22-28?No won
- Will Solana reach $270 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.