Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95420d7ac05f592f988e4cbefd0ce1f7cf8784e29c0d68a406a1264f1f42a67e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas State Bobcatsof Texas State Bobcats, Old Dominion Monarchs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 49c | 295.42$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 48c | 295.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas State Bobcats | 46c | 267.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 47c | 192.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 50c | 159$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 54c | 147.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Texas State Bobcats | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 52c | 68.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Texas State Bobcats | 49c | 57.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 54c | 54.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-1.5)this page
- Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Texas State BobcatsTexas State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.