CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Last Bullet vs Change The Game (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b09a0b421ef00197c6382ddfe923e0de17bc4e914d06e60415f03fc6200c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Change The Gameof Last Bullet, Change The Game
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x413d…d704backed Last Bullet | 55c | 414.55$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Last Bullet | 62c | 403.87$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Change The Game | 47c | 399.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.82 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…2872backed Change The Game | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Last Bullet | 52c | 192.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Change The Game | 50c | 161.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Change The Game | 11c | 145.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…8c98backed Change The Game | 38c | 134.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Last Bullet | 55c | 109.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed Change The Game | 30c | 104.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Change The Game | 50c | 92.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Last Bullet | 52c | 86.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Change The Game | 38c | 73.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Change The Game | 27c | 68.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Last Bullet | 53c | 65.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Last Bullet | 46c | 57.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed Last Bullet | 38c | 48.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…0d11backed Last Bullet | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed Last Bullet | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Change The Game | 49c | 34.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…64bcbacked Last Bullet | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…a35cbacked Last Bullet | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…671fbacked Change The Game | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…36dfbacked Change The Game | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf76…7bd2backed Change The Game | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Change The Game | 50c | 29.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Change The Game | 45c | 28.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Last Bullet | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4b…b938backed Last Bullet | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Last Bullet vs Change The Game (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Last Bullet vs Change The Game - Map 1 WinnerLast Bullet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.