MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969a6a3771725e65e05011c0051f97544bfed99186539f00bad2bcd41b0a60b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 42c | 739.74$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.05 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 59c | 512.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 41c | 497.15$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.32 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 472.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.97 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 57c | 430$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 58c | 370.77$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 43c | 351.42$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 276.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.59 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 59c | 151.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…bfc2backed No | 58c | 131.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 112.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 57c | 87.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…6fbfbacked No | 58c | 37.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked No | 57c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.