CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ee5af6effcc098bc3f56a813d556a2947d1554b04e147f01f15d25a7efdcb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof MOUZ NXT, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Ursa | 66c | 3,566$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.54 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 64c | 1,850$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.07 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 5c | 1,677$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked MOUZ NXT | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Ursa | 15c | 956.72$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…3b87backed MOUZ NXT | 34c | 743.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…4c34backed MOUZ NXT | 35c | 702.95$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 673.12$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.8 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 34c | 672.58$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.93 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked MOUZ NXT | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked MOUZ NXT | 34c | 466.08$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.61 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ NXT | 33c | 455.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 30c | 453.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 453.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.38 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Ursa | 65c | 384$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 65c | 380.22$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.98 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Ursa | 30c | 372.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Ursa | 60c | 364.02$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 336.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 58c | 293.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed MOUZ NXT | 33c | 291.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed MOUZ NXT | 32c | 287.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed MOUZ NXT | 35c | 275.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MOUZ NXT | 42c | 253.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 252.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 64c | 250.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.76 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed MOUZ NXT | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ursa | 65c | 199.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…52a5backed Ursa | 35c | 194.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…4d56backed Ursa | 69c | 190.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked Ursa | 64c | 184.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 206 | 43.7%90 W · 116 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 154.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…3f74backed MOUZ NXT | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 144.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…cfeebacked MOUZ NXT | 32c | 134.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked MOUZ NXT | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…17cfbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 130.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed MOUZ NXT | 33c | 127.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…fe4bbacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 113.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Ursa | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked MOUZ NXT | 35c | 97.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 230 | 38.3%88 W · 142 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…cd40backed MOUZ NXT | 35c | 97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Ursa | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…8237backed MOUZ NXT | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…ff54backed MOUZ NXT | 79c | 69.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…6eabbacked MOUZ NXT | 36c | 48.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed Ursa | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked MOUZ NXT | 33c | 47.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed Ursa | 60c | 47.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…8044backed Ursa | 64c | 46.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9f38backed MOUZ NXT | 69c | 43.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed MOUZ NXT | 31c | 43.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Ursa | 45c | 39.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…b08bbacked MOUZ NXT | 41c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -10.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked MOUZ NXT | 38c | 30.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ursa | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…af78backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 29.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Ursa | 66c | 28.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…31cbbacked Ursa | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…b869backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Ursa | 62c | 26.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…7299backed Ursa | 63c | 25.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e9…48dfbacked Ursa | 59c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed Ursa | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…4310backed Ursa | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Ursa | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.