MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9871f7cd7d3e7eab404d3f4b2900c5850ad4cc1f3f1c901df4bb945dffea3fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Reds | 59c | 11,353$6,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.96 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Rockies | 37c | 9,131$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Rockies | 38c | 5,849$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.15 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rockies | 43c | 3,588$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.33 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Reds | 56c | 2,336$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.43 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Rockies | 36c | 2,133$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 64c | 2,104$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 64c | 1,638$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.57 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockies | 40c | 1,415$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.69 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Reds | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Reds | 64c | 780.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 64c | 722.68$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.16 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rockies | 37c | 542.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Reds | 64c | 531$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.16 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rockies | 34c | 396.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 64c | 279.79$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Reds | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Reds | 64c | 184$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 63c | 180.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Reds | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Reds | 61c | 93.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Reds | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…01b6backed Reds | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rockies | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.