South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cfb03a4480fcbe9cac9d3bba2a3b893a12528e084cf91b3fd54dbaf13bf0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 33c | 2,011$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.36 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 1,735$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 60c | 1,617$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.28 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…14f3backed Over | 26c | 378.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 51c | 346.92$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…6e97backed Under | 63c | 264.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 20c | 253.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 193.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 38c | 192.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Under | 78c | 190.18$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Over | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 99.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 32c | 89.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 67c | 87.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 38c | 80.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 78c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 32c | 74.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 68c | 72.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 78c | 66.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 37c | 58.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 37c | 58.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Under | 72c | 46.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 58c | 42.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 51c | 33.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0949…72f7backed Over | 36c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 63c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-2.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.