MLB · resolved market
Dodgers vs. Mets - Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a850073948fa98f1e4450d769abb6ddb426d750b9a0914ccc3600e59be7a59f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Dodgers, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69f3…1335backed Dodgers | 61c | 2,544$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Mets | 2c | 1,964$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Mets | 35c | 1,905$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.91 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Dodgers | 58c | 1,702$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.96 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Mets | 11c | 993.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Mets | 39c | 700$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Mets | 4c | 649.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Mets | 41c | 604$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Mets | 26c | 273.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Mets | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…c940backed Dodgers | 79c | 138.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Mets | 20c | 123.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Dodgers | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Mets | 39c | 102.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Dodgers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Mets | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Mets | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Dodgers | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Dodgers | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Mets | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Dodgers | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Mets | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Mets | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Mets | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Dodgers | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…1cc1backed Dodgers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Dodgers | 61c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…89f4backed Dodgers | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…3eacbacked Mets | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dodgers vs. Mets - Game 1this page
- Will the Dodgers and Mets combine for 9 or more runs?Over won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.