Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aafa0f27d76db9988dea5313206c11e9d7cc921e06142ca600d44c1f528b9be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,566 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 60c | 1,043$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.65 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…c994backed Yes | 43c | 1,015$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…25bdbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…dd05backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 33c | 768.91$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…cfebbacked Yes | 45c | 758.99$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 650.07$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…4619backed Yes | 37c | 516$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…4541backed Yes | 37c | 510$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…ba76backed Yes | 40c | 478$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…65dcbacked Yes | 37c | 435$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4837…41fdbacked Yes | 37c | 370$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…614cbacked Yes | 47c | 368$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…a41ebacked Yes | 33c | 350$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…210abacked Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…53a8backed No | 66c | 295$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa60…7389backed No | 63c | 291$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…7a4abacked No | 66c | 286$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…98dcbacked Yes | 37c | 283$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c36fbacked No | 67c | 267$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…54d9backed No | 67c | 265$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…ee49backed No | 66c | 259$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…5afcbacked No | 66c | 255$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…0520backed No | 66c | 252$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b72…244cbacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…2014backed No | 66c | 248$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…4d4dbacked Yes | 47c | 246$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1a…f893backed No | 63c | 241$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…81f0backed No | 63c | 241$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9811…259bbacked No | 63c | 238$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…71dfbacked No | 67c | 237$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…b2e3backed No | 63c | 233$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…82e1backed No | 63c | 228$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50b…82f3backed No | 67c | 228$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…ca7ebacked No | 63c | 206$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…2f42backed No | 63c | 186$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…6160backed No | 65c | 179$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…f8c5backed No | 67c | 164$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6675…17dfbacked No | 53c | 154$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…ae8cbacked No | 53c | 144$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3567…9d55backed No | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 55c | 105.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…203ebacked No | 55c | 102.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…1e70backed No | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…c06dbacked No | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 33c | 61.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…46c5backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…9cb8backed No | 75c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 68c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on March 17?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on March 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.