Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b71c3741a6ddc67d84d31502d6e51d9104e3693cc515b1420ea428885a5687c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 36c | 876.08$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.19 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked No | 61c | 599.98$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 46c | 362$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.31 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…b5f8backed No | 68c | 221.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 51c | 177.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.38per pick | 45cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 41c | 110.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 849 | 46.1%391 W · 458 L | +51.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 64c | 82.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…e2a6backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 47c | 63.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…bcd5backed Yes | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked No | 54c | 37.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 35.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…ed47backed Yes | 40c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…910fbacked No | 68c | 26.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785c…facabacked No | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $630 on April 13?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 on April 13?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $650 on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.