Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wichita State vs. Rice
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd3d6a5b29a2ff3b3ae5977a44a96915a302ca0701215bc9f1cf2a3a0d9616a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wichita Stateof Wichita State, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea3…48afbacked Rice | 50c | 114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…848fbacked Wichita State | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3363…77aebacked Rice | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…4622backed Wichita State | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…529abacked Wichita State | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…0668backed Rice | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…34f4backed Wichita State | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…2cc2backed Rice | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…26d5backed Wichita State | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…9f43backed Rice | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a6…4d1abacked Wichita State | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.