Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Stonehill vs. Wagner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd520ad1d3e445f1c038c585ea500ede176afcb33301013978783cdb71b4690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wagnerof Stonehill, Wagner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Wagner | 62c | 843.7$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Stonehill | 39c | 690.16$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.16 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7a…58c1backed Wagner | 50c | 171$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Stonehill | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Stonehill | 49c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…2100backed Stonehill | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Wagner | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cb…d510backed Stonehill | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d1…d7acbacked Stonehill | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…cbf8backed Wagner | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…5e7cbacked Wagner | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45f…6766backed Stonehill | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed Wagner | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…4851backed Stonehill | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…8ca7backed Wagner | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1adc…10b6backed Stonehill | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…8bb6backed Wagner | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6900…a9e5backed Stonehill | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…8e47backed Stonehill | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…0331backed Stonehill | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…4539backed Wagner | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…3dc8backed Wagner | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…19bebacked Wagner | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…0b6bbacked Wagner | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a6f9backed Stonehill | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…aa7dbacked Stonehill | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…a592backed Stonehill | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…b745backed Stonehill | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…3e41backed Wagner | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99d…30babacked Wagner | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e213backed Stonehill | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…03eabacked Wagner | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…839dbacked Wagner | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…d57fbacked Stonehill | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…5078backed Wagner | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa332…85fbbacked Stonehill | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…a900backed Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…922cbacked Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…cbe0backed Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7868…817fbacked Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…cbb4backed Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…e5d8backed Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…b1b9backed Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a0…937fbacked Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…a11abacked Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…c3b1backed Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd07d…10f7backed Wagner | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…9bedbacked Stonehill | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…b211backed Stonehill | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…7b55backed Stonehill | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…ea7ebacked Stonehill | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…0ce5backed Wagner | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd683…7403backed Wagner | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…fd64backed Wagner | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…8271backed Wagner | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…7b17backed Stonehill | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9681…a8d9backed Stonehill | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc248…7c81backed Stonehill | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…30a9backed Wagner | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…f204backed Stonehill | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…e958backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3f…f143backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…6405backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0c…bd27backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…3311backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…ab17backed Stonehill | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5509…d68abacked Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc5…31debacked Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…6720backed Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…a0bfbacked Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…e10ebacked Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…1066backed Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…9f40backed Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…94a2backed Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…2637backed Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa152…4cbdbacked Wagner | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.