Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Yakutou Brothers (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c569abec2c286a84a6181e6686ccf64f8124caec6de15aabcca2337294148cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Yakutou Brothers | 36c | 4,020$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.2 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Team Liquid | 63c | 1,585$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 64c | 1,500$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…e848backed Team Liquid | 66c | 1,448$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Liquid | 76c | 392.03$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…f355backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 192.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Liquid | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Liquid | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.