Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e891e223e1446487ed3521e47596f367ee96eac0de4be7ac4fa55e2046aec4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,253 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 66c | 1,801$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.2 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 34c | 1,150$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 66c | 501.14$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 34c | 495.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 34c | 328.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 34c | 249.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 38c | 240$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…33abbacked Yes | 75c | 191.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Yes | 66c | 115.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked No | 49c | 112.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 51c | 106.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 50.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…3974backed Yes | 66c | 48.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed No | 35c | 42.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Yes | 68c | 39.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 70c | 30.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…4487backed Yes | 71c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 62c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…ddd1backed Yes | 67c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.