Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07cb2e75a46560aaf96b6e9f261423892de241ed0af751b153060f950c1e55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 4c | 499.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 326.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 29c | 303.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 228$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 226.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…caabbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 80.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 70c | 34.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 71c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 72c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…3e64backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw?this page
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.