Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UNLV vs. San José State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c0af6e63df3f485385d4bebbd0608a6e35e6a0dd6c6e5236dd22108d94a418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof UNLV, San José State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed San José State | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.14 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked UNLV | 56c | 962.01$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed San José State | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…3680backed UNLV | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UNLV | 50c | 277$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…f706backed UNLV | 57c | 194$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…93c3backed San José State | 43c | 168$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked UNLV | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed UNLV | 55c | 138.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…23a4backed San José State | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked UNLV | 55c | 98.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…f5febacked San José State | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…2178backed San José State | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…a79ebacked UNLV | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…e3dabacked UNLV | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…1bafbacked San José State | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c78bbacked UNLV | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked UNLV | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…9304backed UNLV | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…c553backed San José State | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…958ebacked UNLV | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…e3a7backed San José State | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee2…fe3cbacked San José State | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2941…44f7backed San José State | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e1…3764backed San José State | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a80…a2e9backed UNLV | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…78cabacked San José State | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…efa5backed San José State | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…ea4fbacked San José State | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…db99backed San José State | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…8817backed UNLV | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…37f3backed UNLV | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c9…ffa7backed San José State | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…3789backed San José State | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3b…9977backed UNLV | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…9087backed San José State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…5e22backed UNLV | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed UNLV | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…53fabacked UNLV | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.