Premier League · resolved market
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-12-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa115cce43891eb5adced9331d88345c1a52751122c6cdaf2ca4b2cb6e80ab3dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 54c | 15,094$8,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,150.84 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,100 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.98 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 2,511$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.91 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 1,808$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 54c | 898$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.92 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 746$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.64 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 549$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 54c | 542.44$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.92 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 47c | 531$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.89 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 49c | 500$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 46c | 440$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 54c | 371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 35c | 303.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 27c | 254.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.01 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 225$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 203.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 129.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 54c | 101$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 54c | 61.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 65c | 58.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed No | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 55c | 37.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 401 | 57.6%231 W · 170 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 47c | 23.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 74c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…e85cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…f4d3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-12-09?this page
- Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-09?No won
- Will Swansea City AFC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.