Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1533e8e83ceb2f14b23573b1f0debadd67d94df9d98bafe6ad3fe03ed21ad64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Coloradoof Northern Colorado, Sacramento State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Sacramento State | 23c | 4,018$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.38 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Northern Colorado | 77c | 3,582$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.09 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Northern Colorado | 78c | 907$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.54 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Sacramento State | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed Sacramento State | 50c | 283$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Northern Colorado | 78c | 175.04$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…67ecbacked Sacramento State | 19c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…66ecbacked Northern Colorado | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b9…9695backed Sacramento State | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…39c8backed Northern Colorado | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…c61abacked Sacramento State | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Northern Colorado | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…a870backed Sacramento State | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…ea40backed Northern Colorado | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…2c7ebacked Sacramento State | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Northern Colorado | 78c | 34.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…2b9abacked Northern Colorado | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd177…a10fbacked Northern Colorado | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…0dadbacked Northern Colorado | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91b…6aa2backed Sacramento State | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…4fcdbacked Northern Colorado | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…cc5cbacked Sacramento State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…cba2backed Northern Colorado | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008c…8c57backed Northern Colorado | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045e…ce63backed Northern Colorado | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.