Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17a6a0039cf2628423f42bf0f4284cc2766e301123793f50539a7fc748ef93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof AVULUS, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed AVULUS | 16c | 3,818$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.89 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 0c | 3,719$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked AVULUS | 4c | 2,819$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed AVULUS | 3c | 944.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed AVULUS | 14c | 788.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked AVULUS | 6c | 662.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked AVULUS | 3c | 509.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed AVULUS | 16c | 500.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed AVULUS | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed AVULUS | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVULUS | 4c | 474.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked AVULUS | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…193cbacked AVULUS | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…e531backed AVULUS | 15c | 168.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f1c8backed AVULUS | 17c | 149.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed AVULUS | 18c | 111.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf2…6ab1backed AVULUS | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 13c | 96.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed AVULUS | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed AVULUS | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…4773backed AVULUS | 17c | 72.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2e…2794backed AVULUS | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed AVULUS | 16c | 64.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.