Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
St. John's vs. Butler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3480b380c0ba07f4cbd8c84bd80a060f2863eb886c3144896e98a5e9c179153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John'sof St. John's, Butler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd589…c946backed St. John's | 74c | 198$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Butler | 21c | 148.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Butler | 25c | 145$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed Butler | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…6b88backed St. John's | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…ae66backed Butler | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed St. John's | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…3bf7backed Butler | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…c572backed St. John's | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…70d9backed St. John's | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…dd92backed Butler | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413e…9255backed Butler | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…93b4backed St. John's | 77c | 54.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…0a7fbacked St. John's | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed Butler | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…95f9backed Butler | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked St. John's | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…c8a7backed Butler | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…67b1backed Butler | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…7f3bbacked St. John's | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2b…62afbacked St. John's | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…6020backed St. John's | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…a5a4backed St. John's | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…e0d5backed St. John's | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb498…5fbdbacked St. John's | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.