MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3505d51e5412e673377fe36c996914fe27539c493f0bcebeae3b8eb67ff8adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 2,051$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.41 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 921.44$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 691.26$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 627.12$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 520.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 516.09$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 394.49$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Detroit Tigers | 46c | 376.28$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 296.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 224.21$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 219.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 196.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 123.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 122.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 110.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Detroit Tigers | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 44.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 33.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.