MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa455029fa8c323c49acb2faa52622e6d8563b321ce156e75e900e430ab10772e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 799$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 325$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 11c | 268.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 215$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 184.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 76.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 37.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612c…46a8backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.