Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49a380fc5d44b13b5dbf285ebc24d78f79ce8e30dca3b34b824cd81a4c0eea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed PlayTime | 46c | 861.05$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed PlayTime | 14c | 334.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Nemesis | 80c | 304.91$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed PlayTime | 47c | 255.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 250.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked PlayTime | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked PlayTime | 10c | 185.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 168.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PlayTime | 21c | 115.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked PlayTime | 37c | 109.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed PlayTime | 18c | 107.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 104.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…fbf2backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed PlayTime | 14c | 82.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 77.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked PlayTime | 29c | 67.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 61.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 54.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed PlayTime | 39c | 53.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…d9f7backed PlayTime | 44c | 49.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked PlayTime | 36c | 48.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…cb4dbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 46.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…c205backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 46.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 45.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked PlayTime | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…210ebacked Team Nemesis | 70c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…ffd0backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…6bc8backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.