Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b8d8d1f8299c811920a627662b9ceac572707a000f4620ed0e59383b9de2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,471 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1d…ca3ebacked No | 55c | 1,166$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…f38dbacked Yes | 52c | 363$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee8…7fb4backed Yes | 52c | 331$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…b2b0backed Yes | 56c | 324$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…7046backed No | 43c | 299$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…c3eebacked Yes | 57c | 288$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…51acbacked No | 43c | 287$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…d0a8backed Yes | 57c | 275$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…546dbacked Yes | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…5e26backed Yes | 57c | 266$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…8fb7backed No | 43c | 265$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…7d15backed Yes | 56c | 263$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…4e03backed Yes | 52c | 257$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 45c | 256.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…1016backed No | 48c | 235$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…53c3backed No | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…24afbacked No | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…ec60backed Yes | 57c | 224$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…3473backed Yes | 56c | 219$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…93b8backed Yes | 57c | 219$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…4fa5backed No | 43c | 217$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…24eabacked No | 43c | 211$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…82d5backed Yes | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4054…2e57backed No | 43c | 206$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…49c6backed No | 43c | 194$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fc…7d75backed Yes | 57c | 194$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…88f6backed No | 48c | 191$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…11bdbacked Yes | 57c | 189$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabab…b6fabacked Yes | 56c | 188$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…ff7bbacked No | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2538…b87ebacked No | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 41c | 173.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…e472backed Yes | 56c | 172$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0bdabacked No | 48c | 166$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 27c | 81.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…e928backed No | 49c | 79.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db7…1cd7backed No | 71c | 74.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 53c | 47.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed Yes | 59c | 45.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 44c | 24.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 19?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 19?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.