CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs AaB esport (BO3) - A1 Gaming League Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa500971d0c816b364420a684d577fc21f2ff26391242ada7cc813e32fb1fda2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AaB esportof STATE, AaB esport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3c2…dd57backed STATE | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a15…23c8backed STATE | 48c | 2,031$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…15c4backed STATE | 49c | 2,010$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed STATE | 26c | 1,962$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.07 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…b9f1backed STATE | 48c | 1,520$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AaB esport | 70c | 1,520$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AaB esport | 74c | 1,160$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…cd01backed STATE | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…df1ebacked AaB esport | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…2a07backed STATE | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…2a0abacked AaB esport | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…9550backed AaB esport | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…1c77backed AaB esport | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe73…d045backed AaB esport | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d3…ae3cbacked AaB esport | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad5…5255backed AaB esport | 52c | 950$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed STATE | 33c | 783.2$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…a7b6backed AaB esport | 52c | 765$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…251bbacked AaB esport | 52c | 755$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…a324backed AaB esport | 52c | 688$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…bb9abacked AaB esport | 52c | 677$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…a9b1backed AaB esport | 52c | 666$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed STATE | 45c | 381.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.38 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed AaB esport | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed AaB esport | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed STATE | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked AaB esport | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed AaB esport | 64c | 38.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…7584backed AaB esport | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.