TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Central Michigan vs. Ball State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Michiganof Central Michigan, Ball State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb786…b18dbacked Ball State41c1,040$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.653057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Central Michigan59c679.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.663658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Central Michigan59c340.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.443560%21 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Central Michigan59c339.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.273050%15 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Ball State41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12342948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fce…415ebacked Ball State50c229$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b65…8466backed Ball State50c216$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+80.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde5a…0fc4backed Central Michigan61c185$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+90.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe985…8f5ebacked Central Michigan59c152.88$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…d3c4backed Ball State44c111.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffe…5449backed Central Michigan50c106$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick44cpaid+50%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Central Michigan48c96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.881,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1715…ab3ebacked Central Michigan59c95.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9e…a0e8backed Ball State44c88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb897…3894backed Ball State43c81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…3edfbacked Central Michigan53c76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6043…b1e1backed Central Michigan47c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14d8…5af0backed Ball State50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0e…fd5fbacked Central Michigan50c69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8307…b374backed Central Michigan68c68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+158.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc829…a1a1backed Central Michigan50c67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+128.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3e…9a55backed Central Michigan57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6304…bcd9backed Ball State44c65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf69d…5868backed Central Michigan56c63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…de6fbacked Ball State39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…050ebacked Ball State47c61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b1…8e24backed Ball State51c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.58250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cf…8046backed Ball State32c56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0464…30a7backed Ball State44c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…e6aebacked Central Michigan56c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78f…c888backed Ball State39c53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d91…e6a4backed Ball State44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ac…93cbbacked Ball State53c49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80b3…a4ccbacked Central Michigan60c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…bd20backed Central Michigan50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a70…8793backed Central Michigan56c46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.24560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f0…1af3backed Ball State44c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad83…8b97backed Central Michigan56c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ca…d77bbacked Ball State43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fcf…e8adbacked Ball State53c44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e2d…a791backed Central Michigan50c41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd2…b062backed Central Michigan49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1228…210abacked Ball State32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f7…cd2cbacked Central Michigan57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a3…a3a9backed Ball State42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e57…b649backed Central Michigan50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8802…db18backed Central Michigan49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c02…9755backed Ball State50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c2…2f9abacked Ball State43c39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb77f…d928backed Ball State39c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d7…bfeabacked Ball State50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa931…afafbacked Central Michigan50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8082…594cbacked Ball State39c38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3663…d5ecbacked Ball State44c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a0…ee69backed Central Michigan56c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e4…6315backed Central Michigan50c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x077e…2cddbacked Ball State40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…a782backed Ball State42c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x321f…18a7backed Central Michigan47c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+223.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb92…feb9backed Central Michigan50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c6c…5b3bbacked Ball State44c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb21…3a4dbacked Ball State39c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…a2c3backed Central Michigan50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa6…f50abacked Central Michigan56c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3998…4afebacked Ball State50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ba…243ebacked Central Michigan60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4954…dd32backed Ball State42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d1…b361backed Ball State40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3a…d5b3backed Ball State40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc54f…612cbacked Central Michigan50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286b…c908backed Central Michigan50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be9…21bcbacked Ball State50c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87bf…7f64backed Central Michigan50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb59a…fb94backed Ball State50c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fd…b83bbacked Ball State50c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6976…7782backed Central Michigan50c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb244…5794backed Ball State44c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7441…4a3cbacked Ball State53c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd321…0c8abacked Central Michigan50c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1321…e138backed Central Michigan56c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3537…2728backed Ball State43c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e05…3e33backed Central Michigan50c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b99…96e5backed Ball State50c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Ball State41c32.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4434842.8%149 W · 199 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…6a69backed Ball State50c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a9…03dcbacked Central Michigan58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3c…2e34backed Ball State40c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1132…43cbbacked Ball State53c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f3…0ab3backed Ball State53c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…9ea5backed Central Michigan47c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…cf59backed Ball State53c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc3…e7a8backed Ball State43c31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f3…ec34backed Central Michigan47c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…0c9ebacked Central Michigan57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6dcebacked Ball State44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd16…2c1cbacked Central Michigan58c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc595…3bbdbacked Central Michigan56c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x984c…ac7ebacked Central Michigan57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14b…cf66backed Central Michigan57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef1…1451backed Central Michigan68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.