Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Maryland vs. Penn State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa653c7b8475c95943ca3b2897156885c711a13e03364196e6a94bbe199ec4b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marylandof Maryland, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Penn State | 10c | 975.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…39c5backed Penn State | 32c | 96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Penn State | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Maryland | 77c | 68.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…669fbacked Penn State | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…468cbacked Maryland | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…0cc6backed Penn State | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd02…cdeabacked Penn State | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…c545backed Penn State | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Maryland | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…68bebacked Penn State | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c4…bca2backed Penn State | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…d56abacked Maryland | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4365…627abacked Maryland | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Maryland | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3ff9backed Maryland | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…e9b7backed Maryland | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…1bccbacked Maryland | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3a…9b86backed Maryland | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…06b4backed Maryland | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…5a36backed Maryland | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…373ebacked Maryland | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…4afcbacked Maryland | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…43ffbacked Maryland | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6a33backed Maryland | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825b…c53fbacked Maryland | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…e2f4backed Maryland | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd50…61bbbacked Maryland | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.