Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7002f0aa33eb66886693e448690913721643057ccc87a5cc30be2f0bf5356d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 40c | 15,000$5,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,056.73 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 11,331$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,683.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 37c | 2,503$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.47 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 2,426$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.87 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 45c | 2,241$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 5c | 1,597$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 56c | 1,217$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.63 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 59c | 620.46$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.94 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 44c | 442.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 42c | 238.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 65c | 235.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Yes | 56c | 222.43$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 38c | 151.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Yes | 39c | 149$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 65c | 85.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 54c | 69.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 45c | 66.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 65.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 55c | 53.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.