Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa72280f200bbe0296c1f20291f5aaedfce832d1ab8be21c49febc4ecd44cd64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 28c | 1,257$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.45 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…20f1backed No | 36c | 408$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a5…c6e3backed Yes | 45c | 364$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…042cbacked No | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…df08backed Yes | 45c | 349$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…f85bbacked No | 55c | 325$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…7dd0backed Yes | 45c | 312$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d94…55dabacked Yes | 45c | 310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…e372backed No | 55c | 287$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…0a9bbacked No | 55c | 285$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…6f55backed Yes | 45c | 281$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 265.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…9056backed No | 71c | 257$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +391.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…8193backed No | 55c | 256$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9f56backed No | 55c | 252$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b72…0cc0backed No | 71c | 249$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +470.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…f378backed No | 55c | 245$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d2…5033backed Yes | 45c | 234$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…222fbacked No | 71c | 233.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…0f3cbacked No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…cde6backed No | 71c | 216$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…f16dbacked No | 55c | 203$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…e2d5backed Yes | 64c | 183$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…cd9abacked Yes | 29c | 178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…8898backed Yes | 29c | 178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 176$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5d…a7f9backed Yes | 64c | 168$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked No | 54c | 160$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…ae8cbacked Yes | 64c | 158$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…e3b1backed Yes | 29c | 156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…730cbacked No | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…35e5backed Yes | 29c | 139$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…53a8backed Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…a454backed Yes | 64c | 132$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…e279backed Yes | 29c | 131$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…24a6backed Yes | 29c | 122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…399fbacked Yes | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…e037backed Yes | 64c | 114$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…fef7backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 59c | 86.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 30c | 81.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 46c | 77.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Yes | 30c | 51.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed No | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…b086backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…82d3backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 50c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 17?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on March 17?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.