La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c191c71f19f1f33e498df2f83cbf9b1b02c41cd2a28ba9dcd7bcb763d5f258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 999$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.8 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 63c | 753.8$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.91 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 63c | 151.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 35c | 95.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 37c | 83.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…e1d8backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Under | 64c | 70.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 63c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 32c | 50.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…db56backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves: O/U 2.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano (-0.5)Rayo Vallecano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.