NHL · resolved market
KHL: Amur Khabarovsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8a6598f3564967eba283437f85fc2d355b855aebac8bf9cd79821282e3648db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Amur Khabarovsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f3c…615dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 45c | 1,521$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Amur Khabarovsk | 55c | 1,025$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.91 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 55c | 389$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…67c3backed Amur Khabarovsk | 55c | 270$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…0075backed Amur Khabarovsk | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459d…6a27backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…73a5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…1bd3backed Amur Khabarovsk | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…9177backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 52c | 110.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Amur Khabarovsk | 56c | 74.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Amur Khabarovsk | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 47c | 45.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Amur Khabarovsk | 57c | 45.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Amur Khabarovsk | 58c | 23.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.