Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8caaf6b8cc75fbf3227cb5c178a03c3f69375be7f30f4c32b74d729f533848f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…c3f1backed Under | 19c | 1,606$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 1,528$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.4 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Under | 1c | 1,211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…1f15backed Under | 41c | 1,062$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 555.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.17 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…c05dbacked Over | 34c | 329.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 71c | 253.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 21c | 249.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 80c | 135.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 72c | 129.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 21c | 120.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…6b31backed Over | 22c | 107.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 21c | 77.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 27c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 76c | 14.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Leicester City FC (-1.5)Leicester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.