Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Mexico vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa94241fad7a5070e8aac191e02db714afe22355f6e0912f3e8906604de0590a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof New Mexico, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed New Mexico | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed San Diego State | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…405dbacked San Diego State | 56c | 293$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6017…e5cabacked San Diego State | 56c | 193$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…c65ebacked New Mexico | 43c | 187$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…87c5backed New Mexico | 44c | 186$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…4bd9backed San Diego State | 56c | 169$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…0287backed San Diego State | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafda…d128backed San Diego State | 50c | 149$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…1227backed New Mexico | 44c | 148$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…fb6bbacked New Mexico | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego State | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…bbccbacked New Mexico | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked San Diego State | 56c | 117$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…09bcbacked San Diego State | 56c | 113$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…50d2backed New Mexico | 44c | 103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…ceecbacked San Diego State | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…5ce8backed San Diego State | 56c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…cf59backed San Diego State | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…c2b2backed New Mexico | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…5798backed New Mexico | 44c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0de…5872backed San Diego State | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…22aebacked New Mexico | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…cf0bbacked New Mexico | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…37f3backed New Mexico | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…4bbcbacked San Diego State | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…12a3backed New Mexico | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…79a2backed San Diego State | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…830dbacked New Mexico | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…8d1cbacked San Diego State | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…b2f5backed San Diego State | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…1bafbacked San Diego State | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…8d1cbacked San Diego State | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…f61abacked New Mexico | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…3bdbbacked New Mexico | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…df8bbacked San Diego State | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447c…583cbacked New Mexico | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…f10dbacked New Mexico | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked New Mexico | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed San Diego State | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…d1acbacked New Mexico | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9103…6674backed New Mexico | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…2f30backed New Mexico | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…0c74backed New Mexico | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca7…3444backed New Mexico | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…79d4backed New Mexico | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…ce7fbacked New Mexico | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…1a2cbacked San Diego State | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2929…03b3backed New Mexico | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…ae66backed New Mexico | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…253abacked New Mexico | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…8c71backed New Mexico | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…3269backed New Mexico | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…f8f3backed San Diego State | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897f…421bbacked San Diego State | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked San Diego State | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…498bbacked New Mexico | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…d0a1backed San Diego State | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6b8ebacked San Diego State | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…db47backed New Mexico | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked San Diego State | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…6774backed San Diego State | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f1…26f6backed San Diego State | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5f…c66cbacked New Mexico | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…9d7fbacked San Diego State | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…03f8backed San Diego State | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.