Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State Bears vs. Sam Houston Bearkats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d83f2ef09c3182f6867ef9325b3fc4614de615e780b202a76d2cb402ad7bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sam Houston Bearkatsof Missouri State Bears, Sam Houston Bearkats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 79c | 1,940$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.61 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Missouri State Bears | 11c | 1,700$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Missouri State Bears | 26c | 1,223$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.89 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Missouri State Bears | 27c | 1,126$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.63 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 74c | 908.84$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Missouri State Bears | 28c | 794.94$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Missouri State Bears | 16c | 624.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Missouri State Bears | 19c | 467.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 75c | 405.36$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 72c | 405$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Missouri State Bears | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 73c | 181.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Missouri State Bears | 27c | 110.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Missouri State Bears | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 76c | 68.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 73c | 55.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Missouri State Bears | 26c | 49.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…f023backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 73c | 43.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…32aebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.